Early Voting Trends Offer Hope For Democrats In Texas
Kronberg’s Quorum Report , which reports on Texas politics, posted today about early voting and a possible Democratic trend in Texas. The post is full of numbers that might make you sleepy and might be out of date within hours, but the upshot is that maybe U.S. Senate candidate Rick Noriega and Texas Democrats have a chance in 2008.
From the Report—
“Although two weeks is multiple lifetimes in politics… polls released today suggest the McCain campaign is collapsing. The Wall Street journal/NBC poll…this morning reported Obama with a ten point lead. A Pew Research Center poll says Obama is up by 14. These two polls contrast with the Real Clear Politics rolling average of polls that indicates a spread of 6.8%. However, if you factor in Libertarians and Greens, Obama’s lead is just shy of 10%. Combine that with this morning’s stunning Houston Chronicle endorsement of Rick Noriega over incumbent Republican John Cornyn, and the possibility of something serious looming in Texas becomes a more reasonable hypothesis. Unfortunately, since we are not considered a battleground state, there is a paucity of public statewide polling in Texas. Extrapolating is the order of the day. But consider these numbers. Both George W. Bush and Kay Bailey Hutchison won with 63% in 2004 and 2006 respectively. According to Real Clear Politics average, McCain is down by 9% at 53.7% in an average from September 29 to October 15. Obama tracked a little better than the historical Democratic base vote of 39%. No resources are being spent in Texas but considering the national trend lines and daily drumbeat of 500 point market losses, lets round it up and say McCain trails Bush and Hutchison’s number by an even 10% in public polling.It is not unreasonable to hypothesize that the ten point drop is moderate Republicans and independents that are at least up for grabs. Meanwhile, Rasmussen’s polls have not shown John Cornyn above 50% since last June. Throw the libertarian into the mix and anything can happen.”
You might think it is crazy to think that Texas is a prospect for Democrats in 2008, but consider the early Earth. It was a hellish place. It was a place inhospitable to any kind of intelligent life.
But in time things got much better.
Things can indeed get better.
And sometimes things can get better in less than a few billion years. They might get better sooner than you imagine.
Driver Honks, Rolls Down Window, Asks If I Want Obama Sticker
A few days ago I was stopped at a red light when the driver in the car next to me honked and signaled me to roll down my passenger side window.
I eyed him warily and rolled down the window with one hand, while reaching for the revolver in my glove compartment with the other hand.
Ha!–That’s a joke. I rolled down my window to see what he wanted.
He said he saw the Rick Noriega for U.S. Senate bumper sticker on my car, and asked if I would like an Obama sticker. He waved a few Obama stickers around. I told him I had one already and that I had just not put it on my car as of yet. ( I’ve still not put the sticker on. I will, I will.)
This interaction warmed my heart. It’s good to know people are driving about looking to do the right thing. Decent folks know this gentleman was motivated by a desire for a better country and for a government that helps people.
It is excellent that we all have the capacity to do small things that make other people’s day a bit better, and that some are able to help us all move forward even when stuck at a red light.
It Might Be Best If Travis & Alabama Democratic HQ. Had Noriega Bumper Stickers
I visited the midtown headquarters for our Harris County Democratic campaign this morning. This office is located at 3710 Travis at the corner of Alabama & Travis.
I got a couple of Obama bumper stickers. I asked if they had a Rick Noriega for Senate bumper sticker. They did not. The only other bumper sticker was for State Senate candidate Chris Bell. They did have yard signs for many candidates on the county ticket.
While at the HQ, I heard another man ask for a Noriega sticker.
I feel it might be best if this busy campaign office had bumper stickers for all Democrats running in Harris County and Texas. And that it might be best if all candidates on the Democratic ticket in Harris County had bumper stickers in the first place so voters could show support in this easy and accessible way.
These are my views on this subject.
Who Is Running For The United States Senate In Texas In 2008?
Is there a United States Senate race on the ballot In Texas in 2008 and, if so, who are the candidates?
There is one United States Senate seat from Texas up for election this year.
Democratic State Representative Rick Noriega is the nominee of his party for this office.
Mr. Noriega is a native Texan and an experienced legislator. He was elected to the Texas House in 1998.
Representative Noriega is also an officer in the Texas Army National Guard and has served extensively in Afghanistan. Please click here to learn more about Mr. Noriega.
The incumbent is the deeply conservative John Cornyn. Mr. Cornyn was first elected in 2002 with, for a Texas Republican in recent years, a relatively low 55% of the vote.
I would argue Senator Cornyn is out of step with the needs of Texans today, and, also, with the state Texas is becoming.
With a firmly established pattern of supporting the failed War in Iraq, crippling Medicare and being stingy on veteran’s benefits, Senator Cornyn represents a past many Texans are now questioning and a future that offers little response to the changing economic and demographic facts of our state and our nation.
As I write this in late June, a recent poll asserts Mr. Noriega is running just two points behind Mr. Cornyn. This is a strong showing against an incumbent.
As you begin to focus on your options for the November ballot, I ask you to please consider Rick Noriega for the United States Senate from Texas.
Below is a photo of Rick Noriega.
Noriega & More—Texas Political Notes And Thoughts
Some political notes and thoughts from Texas and Harris County—
(Above is the harbor at Palacios in Matagorda County. George Bush won 65% of the nearly 12,500 votes cast in Matagorda in 2004. But I’m certain that four years of calm seaside reflection has given the good folks of Matagorda a new view of things for 2008.)
Noriega Senate Race
Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Rick Noriega of Houston is polled by Rasmussen as running only 4 points behind far-right incumbent John Cornyn. In this polling snapshot, the race is seen as 47% for Mr. Cornyn and 43% for Mr. Noriega.
Mr. Noriega is a Texas State representative.
I recall early numbers from 2002 that had former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk running ahead of then Texas Attorney General Cornyn. At the time, Mr. Kirk’s favorable name recognition in the Dallas metroplex was a source of his strength.
Mr. Cornyn won that race 55% -43% in a Republican year.
This time around, it may be that some Texans are reconsidering allegiance to Republican party ( As well they should.) and that demographic changes in this majority-minority state are finally catching up to the ballot box.
Mr. Noriega’s 51% showing in the Texas Democratic primary was not impressive. Yet, Mr. Noriega will no doubt establish himself among Texas Democrats as November approaches. If the broader climate in Texas is moving towards Democrats, than Mr. Noriega may have a shot.
Here is Mr. Noriega’s campaign web home.
Harris County Races
Recent reports on racial disparities in application of the death penalty in Harris County, and reports from Dallas county about long-term inmates being set free after being proved innocent show the importance of a new justice team in Harris County.
The new Democratic District Attorney in Dallas County has made such a positive difference in that part of Texas.
Electing C.O. Bradford as District Attorney and Adrian Garcia as County Sheriff would be a good start towards the more fair practice of justice in Harris County.
The Harris County Democratic coordinated campaign will be led by Bill Kelly.
I’ve seen Democratic coordinated campaigns in other parts of the country that involved walking around money for local pastors and others, and mailings into minority communities featuring white politicians linked up with black politicians.
These mailings were meant to aid white politicians by associating them with black candidates in areas where many black voters live. Yet it never seemed to work the other way of mailings into mostly white areas as a way to boost black candidates.
One of the many reasons I’m glad to hear about the appointment of Mr. Kelly is that I know it portends real change in Harris County.
Change for the Harris County Democratic Party as it moves to full inclusion of the voters who are the backbone of its local support, and, after success at the ballot box, changes in public policy such as the immediate need for a better justice system.
In addition to the $500 breakfast listed on the web page of the Harris County Democratic Party, I look forward to a more broad based campaign kick-off event to generate excitement about the November ticket.
This post is also at my Houston Chronicle blog where I’m one of eight featured political bloggers.
(The Houston Ship Channel is a big deal in Harris County. Harris County voted 54% -46 % for George Bush in 2004. There were just over 1.05 million votes cast. 2008 may be a more successful year for Harris County Democrats. )
I Brought A Plant And Some Pens To Rick Noriega For U.S. Senate HQ
A source inside the Rick Noriega for U.S. Senate campaign told me the campaign headquarters, located at 3200 Kirby Drive in Houston, did not have a plant and that it was often hard to find a pen.
This afternoon I brought the Noriega campaign a plant and 52 pens.
My source was wrong about the absence of a plant.
Now they have two plants.
Below is what the Noriega headquarters looks like after the addition of my plant today–
However, the young woman who took the pens agreed it is often difficult to find a pen at the Noriega shop.
Here is the link to the Rick Noriega campaign for the U.S. Senate.
Here is a post I wrote about receiving a gift of a nice pen from a friend. If we can’t communicate with ourselves, how can we communicate with others?
In Praise Of Gene Kelly & Outlaw Josey Wales
Two perennial candidates for office in Texas are Gene Kelly and Outlaw Josey Wales.
Mr. Kelly runs statewide and Mr. Wales runs for Mayor of Houston.
In the recently contested Texas primary, Mr. Kelly won 27% in the Democratic U.S. Senate primary against Rick Noriega. Mr. Noriega won the primary and avoided a runoff with 51% of the vote.
Here is some information about Mr. Kelly from today’s Houston Chronicle.
Kelly is a reclusive retired military judge and lawyer from Universal City, a San Antonio suburb. He traditionally does little more than pay his filing fee, but apparently he wins votes because he has the same name as the late movie star and dancer.
Since 1990, Kelly has run for the Texas Supreme Court, Texas Court of Criminal Appeals, attorney general and U.S. Senate.
In 2006, he forced Barbara Ann Radnofsky into a runoff in the Democratic U.S. Senate race. She overcame with “the dancer is dead” campaign, but the fact that she was in a runoff is believed to have cost her financial support from national Democratic donors.
Many candidates have an aspect of personal identity that wins them votes.
Did Mr. Noriega win votes because he is Hispanic? ( This no doubt cost him some votes as well.)
Some people voted for Barack Obama because he is black. Hillary Clinton gets some votes for being a woman and she has a famous last name.
So what? That’s democracy for you. It’s a big spin of the wheel.
It’s not Gene Kelly’s fault that by simply putting his name on the ballot he wins a quarter of the vote. I say more power to Mr. Kelly.
If the party that likes to think of itself as the more “enlightened” party has to convince people that the actual “Singing in the Rain” Gene Kelly is not on the ballot–Well, then we have bigger problems than Mr. Kelly’s presence on the ballot.
Here in Houston, I am a big fan of Outlaw Josey Wales.
That’s his legal name.
Mr. Wales ran for Mayor of Houston last year.
In 1999, I voted for Mr. Wales against incumbent Houston Mayor Lee Brown.
Mr. Brown was certain to win the election. I did not think so much of Mr. Brown.
Once I convinced myself that Mr. Wales was not a right-wing kook, I figured what the hell?
Two years later when Mr. Brown had a serious Republican challenger, I voted for Mr. Brown.
Here is what I said about Mr. Wales last October—
As for Mr. Wales, self-creation and starting fresh are acts fully consistent with Houston and with politics.
He changed his name because he wanted to make some money. Good for him. I hope he made some money. If I thought I could make a lot of money by changing my name to Wyatt Earp, I would likely do so..
Mr. Wales has had fewer names than former Texas Comptroller and candidate for Governor One Tough Grandma Carole Keeton Rylander Strayhorn….
Bloggers give themselves new names and made-up names all the time…
I don’t care what people choose to call themselves.
Is Mr. Wales anymore or less stable than our civic Founding Father Sam Houston? Mr. Houston used to walk around Houston dressed as a cross between a frontiersman and an Indian. Sam Houston was, in his way, a serious and talented man.
Is Mr. Wales any more or less serious than the process of how we elect our city officials in Houston with silly six year term limits and terrible turnout? I think Mr. Wales might in fact be somewhat dignified for such a screwed-up process.
Absurdity is a refuge from the day-to-day pain of life. As long as absurdity does not become detachment, what harm does it do?
I look forward to seeing Mr. Kelly and Mr. Wales on the ballot many more times.
Rick Noriega Has Work To Do To Win U.S. Senate Race In Texas
Good news from the Texas primary last night for State Representative Rick Noriega of Houston was that he avoided a runoff.
Mr. Noriega was 51% of votes cast against three weak opponents.
The bad news for Mr. Noriega was that he won just 51% against three weak opponents.
2.86 million people voted in the Democratic presidential race yesterday in Texas
2.16 million voted in the Senate contest.
Nearly a quarter of Democratic primary voters did not get very far down the ticket.
Maybe they they were in a hurry and had someplace else to go.
In the Senate race there was no real reason for a Democrat not to vote for Mr. Noriega.
By any conventional standard, Mr. Noriega was the likely nominee, the strongest candidate for the general election and pretty much the only “serious” candidate on the Democratic ballot to face incumbent John Cornyn.
There was no reason that would serve the party in November, or any type of ideological split, that merited forcing Mr. Noriega into a runoff.
Just under 39% of all Democrats who voted yesterday voted for Mr. Noriega.
It simply seems that many Democrats did not know who Mr. Noriega was.
From the Republican side it was more good news/bad news for Mr. Noriega.
The good news was the superior Democratic turnout.
1.38 million Republicans voted in the Presidential race.
1.21 million Republicans voted in the senate primary between Mr. Cornyn and a man named Larry Kilgore.
Hopefully Democrats have been energized to show up in November. Almost twice as many voted people in the Democratic Senate primary as did in the Republican primary.
On the other hand, Mr. Cornyn won 81% of the vote in his race and 72% of all Republicans voting cast a ballot for Mr. Cornyn.
Republicans know who Mr. Cornyn is and are basically willing to vote for him.
Mr. Noriega has overcome one challenge by winning the Democratic primary without a runoff.
Yet in addition to making the case against Senator Cornyn, it appears he still has work to do in introducing himself to Texas Democrats.
Get to know Rick Noriega a little better by clicking here to visit his homepage.