Texas Liberal Election Predictions

Here are my Texas Liberal election predictions. Please take them to the bank. They are certain to be correct.

President— Senator Obama will win 52.0% of the vote. Senator McCain will win 46.8%. 1.2% will go third party candidates. I don’t know what the final electoral vote count will be, but Mr. Obama will have at least the 270 needed for victory. That’s good enough.

Once in the voting booth, some of our fellow Americans, though not enough to shift the outcome, will have “second thoughts” about Mr. Obama. The motivation will in part be racial, but the larger factor will just be how fully different an Obama Presidency will be from we have known in recent years. Even a bad situation, if familiar, can be comforting. 

The racists have already made up their minds against Mr. Obama. But the good thing is that some racists will vote for Senator Obama and some of these people will see the world in a new way after Mr. Obama is President.

We all have room to grow. 

What will carry the the day for Mr. Obama will be increased turnout of black voters and young people. I don’t feel polls have captured these voters well. There are so many black folks who have just sat elections out over the years.

With the election of Mr. Obama we will be, for the time being at least, emancipated from the post 9/11 era of fear based politics. America’s political majority will be a multi-racial coalition of people who have hope for a decent future. 

That’s the side that I want to be on!

United States Senate—I predict 58 Democrats and 42 Republicans. Then 57 Democrats after Election Day when we do what is right and kick Joe Lieberman out of the Democratic caucus. This would be an overall gain of 7. 

I sure hope that Al Franken beats Norm Coleman in Minnesota. The Idea of Mr. Coleman sitting in Paul Wellstone’s seat just makes me sick.

United States House—I see a Democratic gain of 24 for a 257-178 Democratic Majority.

Here in Houston, Nick Lampson and Michael Skelly will lose their House races. Local Democrats will say how sad that all is, but in fact many Democrats will bid both men a hearty good riddance. Mr. Skelly’s campaign in particular has exceeded what is needed to win a Republican district. Is it really so that liberals are unlikely to be successful business people? As for Mr. Lampson, he got his two extra years in Congress and now he can pay his karmic debt for his terrible 2006 campaign. 

In my other hometown of Cincinnati, my parents will still be afflicted with Mean Jean Schmidt as their Congressperson, However, across town, increased black turnout is going to finally, after all these years, nail Steve Chabot. I don’t feel that my parents should move across town to live in the Democratic district. Maybe they could just drive over there every so often. 

Texas—Democrats will win back the Texas House, but fail to have a working majority because they refuse to move Texas into the 20th-century with a party-based majority system. Freelance House Democrats will hold out on the vote for Speaker to see who offers the best deal. Some will support a Republican for Speaker. The public will lose out and I’ll say I told you so.

Harris County, Texas—Democrats will win all offices but for County Judge Executive. They will win back the judgeships.  

The first thing I’ll be looking for is major reforms of how we conduct the death penalty in Harris County. Hopefully, the new District Attorney will pursue a course far less bloodthirsty and barbaric from what we have seen from the seemingly inhuman men who have been elected to this office in the ten years I’ve lived in Houston.

It will be up to rank-and-file Democrats and all people of Harris County to see that the new Democrats in Harris County office really represent a change. There is more to our county than traffic and hurricanes. There are many people who need help from government.

Urban voters are used by Democrats all the time. The switch to Democrats in Harris County reflects demographic trends, high turnout for Mr. Obama, and campaign money that flowed on in from big donors when it seemed likely Democrats could win the county. It is not some grassroots rebellion.

They’ll use us if we let them. Let us remain vigilant and make life better in our county.   

For those opposed to my views this Election Day, I offer nothing but the back of my hand. For those on my side of the aisle, let’s hope that this time the wheel lands on our number.

I Early Voted In Harris County—Some Democrats I Enjoyed Voting For And Two That Failed To Impress

Yestrerday I early voted at the Harris County Administration building (above) located at 1001 Preston Avenue in Downtown Houston, Texas. 

The electronic voting gizmo, which I feel is programmed to flip all my votes to the Republican Party, allowed me to vote in Vietnamese—

(Sunset in a Vietnamese fishing village called Mui Ne) 

   

…And in Spanish as well.

( Below is Valparaiso, Chile.)

If English is the official language of the United States, how come I can vote in Vietnamese and Spanish in a right wing place like Texas? We’ve even been at war with Vietnam and Spain in the past.

I’m glad we have the ability to make peace with former enemies. We are all brothers and sisters.

I’m very glad I got the chance to vote for a black man named Barack H. Obama for President of the United States. That is what I call progress.

( Below–Blacks voting in 1867. Here is a history of Reconstruction. )

I voted for each Democrat on the ballot. Though I did not use the straight party ticket button. I enjoy voting and I went down and selected the name of each candidate.   

I’ve written before, and still assert, that the straight ticket voter is possibly the most rational voter of all. Party identification serves as a kind of shorthand for voters to be able to navigate the large number of issues we confront in our complex society.

However, we do retain the right not to support all the candidates of our favored political party. Inevitably, some will be hard to take.

I paused over the names of Michael Skelly for the 7th U.S. House district from Texas and David Mincberg for the office of Harris County Judge Executive.

Mr. Skelly has campaigned in large part on the false issues of earmark reform and a balanced budget. These are irresponsible postions at a time when swift and decisive action from government is needed to bring our economy back to health.

Here is what Nobel Prize winning New York Times columnist recently said about government’s role in our economic recovery—

….there’s a lot the federal government can do for the economy. It can provide extended benefits to the unemployed, which will both help distressed families cope…It can provide emergency aid to state and local governments, so that they aren’t forced into steep spending cuts that both degrade public services and destroy jobs. It can buy up mortgages (but not at face value, as John McCain has proposed) and restructure the terms to help families stay in their homes. And this is also a good time to engage in some serious infrastructure spending, which the country badly needs in any case. The usual argument against public works as economic stimulus is that they take too long: by the time you get around to repairing that bridge and upgrading that rail line, the slump is over and the stimulus isn’t needed. Well, that argument has no force now, since the chances that this slump will be over anytime soon are virtually nil. Will the next administration do what’s needed to deal with the economic slump? Not if Mr. McCain pulls off an upset. What we need right now is more government spending — but when Mr. McCain was asked in one of the debates how he would deal with the economic crisis, he answered: “Well, the first thing we have to do is get spending under control.”

If Mr. Skelly’s opponent has been bringing earmarks to this district, that is one way we would be better served by keeping the incumbent. Regretfully, the incumbent is quite far to the right.   

David Mincberg has been running a tone deaf negative campaign against the Republican incumbent. After so many years of Republican rule in Harris County, there are so many unmet needs and things to to be done. Why don’t we hear about some of that? Instead, what we are getting are attacks against incumbent that are simply not going to resonate with the public after his very visible role during Hurricane Ike.

Also, Mr. Mincberg has a campaign sign—one so big that it needs to be propped up from behind with rods—located on the right of way on a 610 feeder road near the Galleria. I’d like to take that sign and nail it to the side of Mr. Mincberg’s house. (I won’t though. And don’t you either.) 

I did in the end vote for Mr. Skelly and Mr. Mincberg. Though I’m not sure that was the right course. There is little doubt these men would be better than the incumbents. But from my view, as a liberal who has lived in a city all his life and had my vote taken for granted by Democrats who deliver little, both Mr.Skelly and Mr. Mincberg send up warning flags.

It’s not about ideological differences. There are only two main political parties for 300 million people and a big tent is required. It’s about the issues you choose to focus on and how you campaign. There is plenty of room for political creativity and correct behavior in even the most Republican of constituencies. 

In contrast to Mr. Skelly and Mr. Mincberg, there were votes I was glad to cast—

Rick Noriega for the United States Senate—Mr. Noriega will be quite a contrast to the far right incumbent. He has served his country in war and is now ready to serve in Washington.  Also, his wife has been known to visit this blog.

Ellen Cohen for the Texas House District 134—It is good that Ms. Cohen appears to have an easy race after banishing the lousy Martha Wong in 2006.

Loren Jackson for Harris County District Clerk—Mr. Jackson is very honest, never puts a campaign sign in the public space, and once gave me a campaign tee-shirt. Below is a picture of Mr. Jackson. If you see him be certain to shake his hand and to tell him you share his commitment to freedom.  

Adrian Garcia for Harris County Sheriff—Mr. Garcia is going to bring some real justice to our county. Everybody is going to be treated the same and that treatment will be just and decent.   

It was fun to vote. I encourage all who share my views to go out and vote. As for those who do not share my views—I can’t offer as much encouragement. You might want to think about staying at home. I’m sure there is some dusting or laundry you could catch up on. 

( Below—The young women below wanted citizens to vote “no” on the showing of movies on Sunday in the town of La Grange, Illinois. This was in 1929. I don’t know how the vote turned out.)  

 

U.S House Candidate Michael Skelly—Use When Needed

Texas U.S. House Candidate Michael Skelly issued a statement today suggesting MoveOn.org should “move out of Texas.” (Clever, huh?) This was in response to a MoveOn event at Congressman John Culberson’s office yesterday asking Mr. Culberson to look for solutions to our energy needs beyond offshore drilling.     

Because, whatever you may think, offshore drilling is not going to lower your gas prices. 

Mr. Skelly, a Democrat, is seeking to unseat Mr. Culberson, a Republican, in the November election.

This race is being contested in the 7th U.S House district in Texas. This has been a strong Republican district, but Mr. Skelly is given a chance of winning.

One can understand if Mr. Skelly does not want to be identified with MoveOn in a Republican-leaning district. Winning elections is a practical concern. 

What should not be forgotten though, is that MoveOn consists mostly of average folks who are getting involved for no return but the chance to work for what they believe. I’m certain that on Election Day, Mr. Skelly will take the votes of MoveOn members in the 7th district.

There’s nothing more important someone can give than time. Time is the most important thing we have in life. 20 people stood out in the heat yesterday at Mr. Culberson’s office. Most people do nothing.

Politicians are inherently users. ( As are many of us.) This does not mean they are all without beliefs. You can be a user and have beliefs at the same time. In fact, some politicians are principled.

But when you tell folks working for you to “move out”, you’d might as well be telling them to go to hell. It’s a reaction that strikes of panic by his campaign and of disdain for his active supporters.

Mr. Skelly has the right to conduct his effort as he sees best. And Democrats and progressives in the 7th district have the right to view Mr. Skelly in a guarded fashion.

I see Mr. Skelly as he sees me—As somebody to use to reach a goal. If he seems viable on Election Day and if he can resist telling people who feel as I do to take a hike, I’ll vote for him. It’s one thing to not agree with me on all the issues. I’m not the only person in the world. It’s another thing not to want my support.

If on Election Day he fades away, I’ll just wait two years for the next user to come along.

(This is also posted at the Houston Chronicle where I’m one of seven featured political reader-bloggers.)

Blog Reader Asks How To Get Skelly For Congress Sign

A Texas Liberal reader named Scott Fleming has asked the following excellent question regarding the campaign of Michael Skelly—-

“I would like a yard sign. I live in the 7th district. Please advise where/how I can get one. Thanks.” 

Mr. Skelly is running as the Democratic nominee in the 7th Congressional District of Texas. Blog reader Fleming asked this question in the comment space of my post about why you should volunteer for Michael Skelly.

Mr. Fleming, here is your answer—You can click here for the Skelly for Congress web page and send an e-mail with your request. Or you can call 713-522-7535 and ask for one. Or you can visit the Skelly HQ 3200 Kirby Drive and see if they have a sign for you to take.

Mr. Skelly is going to win this Houston-area seat this November.

Texas Liberal is a blog that endeavors to be of help to others. I’ll take any and all questions from readers and do my best to find the right answer.

Lose The Election Is What John Culberson Can Do For Me

My terrible Congressman, the far-right John Culberson, sent me some taxpayer financed junk mail.

It’s a multi-colored circular with attacks on the “Democrat-led Congress.” Would not black-and-white printing been the more frugal course with taxpayer money?

On the mailing it says–“If there is anything John Culberson can do for you…please contact him at the Houston or Washington offices.”

What John Culberson can do for me is lose the election.

Mr. Culberson’s opponent in the 7th U.S. House district of Texas is Michael Skelly. Mr. Skelly has raised more money than Mr. Culberson to this point and he is going to win in November.

Mr. Skelly is going to win despite his tiny little square “bumper stickers” you can hardly see unless you are tailgating.

Please click here for my post on why you should volunteer for Mr. Skelly.

Here is the web page for Mr. Skelly.

Houston/Galveston County Notes

 

Here are some Houston and Galveston County notes.

Above is the pink dolphin spotted in Galveston Bay last year.

Skelly On The Move

Texas political blog Capitol Annex posts that Democratic Texas U.S. House District 7 candidate Michael Skelly is on the radar of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Mr. Skelly is going to defeat incumbent John Culberson in this Houston-area district. Watch for this race to get more attention as Election Day nears.

Please here click for my post on why you should volunteer for Mr. Skelly. I say in the post that the Skelly race is an uphill race. I’m glad to say I will be adjusting my thinking on that matter.   

TexBlog Pac To Hold Houston Fundraiser

TexBlog pac will be holding a fundraiser in Houston on June 26.

The goal is to raise money to help elect a Democratic majority in the Texas House.

The event will be at the Rice Lofts located at 909 Texas Avenue in Downtown Houston.

It starts at 6:30 PM.

Houston blogger Charles Kuffner has more details. 

State Representative Garnet Coleman will be there as will a number of other local office holders and candidates.

Vo Fixes Apartments

Democratic State Representative Hubert Vo has brought apartments he owns up to building codes.

Well….That’s good. But why does a urban Democratic officeholder run a slum operation to start? People deserve forgiveness. I make mistakes all the time. Still, I find this frustrating on many levels. 

Voters in Mr. Vo’s district can decide this November how they feel about the issue.   

Galveston County Reconstruction-Era Black Settlement Marked

The black run town of Our Settlement, the only all black town in Galveston County in the years right after the Civil War, now has a Texas historical marker.  

First Woman Elected In Galveston Dies

From the Galveston County Daily News ( Here is the full obit)—

Ruth Levy Kempner, the trailblazing, outspoken lover of Galveston politics who was the city’s first female elected official, died Monday in her home at the age of 90. A self-described “civic busybody,” Kempner influenced Galveston politics for decades and kept up with city council antics until her death.              

Kempner and her best friend of 80 years, Frances Kay Harris, lobbied for a change in the form of city government to “anyone who would listen” in the late 1950s, Harris said.

When the city adopted the council-manager form of government, Kempner ran for council and became the first woman elected to city office. As a councilwoman, she was a sharp-witted, well-spoken fighter for her cause, said Bob Albright, who served on the council with Kempner from 1961 to 1963.

Why You Should Volunteer For Michael Skelly For Congress Or In Some Other Uphill Race

Michael Skelly is running for Congress as a Democrat from the 7th Congressional District of Texas. ( Please click the link for the Skelly campaign.)

This district includes portions of Houston and areas around Houston. It has been a Republican district in recent years.

The incumbent is the terrible John Culberson.

You should volunteer for Michael Skelly and for other candidates facing an uphill race.

(Though this race may not be uphill as it seems at first look.) 

Let me tell you why.

When I was 23, I volunteered for a man named Tyrone Yates who was running as a Democrat in the very Republican 2nd congressional district of Ohio. This was in 1990.

This Cincinnati-area district now elects the terrible Jean Schmidt.

Tyrone had, at best, a small chance of winning.

In the other Cincinnati-area district, the 1st, there was a tight and high profile race for an open seat.

That campaign had many volunteers. Most of them were forgotten by the campaigns when the race was over. 

Mr. Yates did not have many volunteers.   

I called Tyrone one day out of the blue and he told me to come to a campaign meeting.

I was soon part of the campaign core.

There were maybe 8 of us.

We went to campaign appearances and had a good time. I learned things. I made some friends.

We lost the race, but it was a great experience and fun.

In 1991, Tyrone became a member of the Cincinnati City Council.

In 1992, he gave me a job in his office. Tyrone gave me the job in part because I had been on-board with him when others had not.

While working at Cincinnati City Hall, I met my future wife. 

Also, even though we lost our race in 1990, we served the cause of democracy.

Mr. Skelly will likely have a larger campaign than we did—I hope he does—But I bet he will appreciate each and every person who offers help. The same can be said of challengers like Mr. Skelly running across the nation. 

This story from the Houston Chronicle talks about a quick fundraising start for Mr. Skelly.

Here’s a recap of why you should volunteer for Micheal Skelly for Congress in Houston, or in some other challenging race where you live—      

1. You will learn about politics— 

2. You might meet new friends—

3. If you are loyal and lucky, you might end up with a job–

4. You will be serving democracy–

5. Maybe you will meet your future spouse—