Texas Liberal

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Texas Liberal Election Predictions

Here are my Texas Liberal election predictions. Please take them to the bank. They are certain to be correct.

President— Senator Obama will win 52.0% of the vote. Senator McCain will win 46.8%. 1.2% will go third party candidates. I don’t know what the final electoral vote count will be, but Mr. Obama will have at least the 270 needed for victory. That’s good enough.

Once in the voting booth, some of our fellow Americans, though not enough to shift the outcome, will have “second thoughts” about Mr. Obama. The motivation will in part be racial, but the larger factor will just be how fully different an Obama Presidency will be from we have known in recent years. Even a bad situation, if familiar, can be comforting. 

The racists have already made up their minds against Mr. Obama. But the good thing is that some racists will vote for Senator Obama and some of these people will see the world in a new way after Mr. Obama is President.

We all have room to grow. 

What will carry the the day for Mr. Obama will be increased turnout of black voters and young people. I don’t feel polls have captured these voters well. There are so many black folks who have just sat elections out over the years.

With the election of Mr. Obama we will be, for the time being at least, emancipated from the post 9/11 era of fear based politics. America’s political majority will be a multi-racial coalition of people who have hope for a decent future. 

That’s the side that I want to be on!

United States Senate—I predict 58 Democrats and 42 Republicans. Then 57 Democrats after Election Day when we do what is right and kick Joe Lieberman out of the Democratic caucus. This would be an overall gain of 7. 

I sure hope that Al Franken beats Norm Coleman in Minnesota. The Idea of Mr. Coleman sitting in Paul Wellstone’s seat just makes me sick.

United States House—I see a Democratic gain of 24 for a 257-178 Democratic Majority.

Here in Houston, Nick Lampson and Michael Skelly will lose their House races. Local Democrats will say how sad that all is, but in fact many Democrats will bid both men a hearty good riddance. Mr. Skelly’s campaign in particular has exceeded what is needed to win a Republican district. Is it really so that liberals are unlikely to be successful business people? As for Mr. Lampson, he got his two extra years in Congress and now he can pay his karmic debt for his terrible 2006 campaign. 

In my other hometown of Cincinnati, my parents will still be afflicted with Mean Jean Schmidt as their Congressperson, However, across town, increased black turnout is going to finally, after all these years, nail Steve Chabot. I don’t feel that my parents should move across town to live in the Democratic district. Maybe they could just drive over there every so often. 

Texas—Democrats will win back the Texas House, but fail to have a working majority because they refuse to move Texas into the 20th-century with a party-based majority system. Freelance House Democrats will hold out on the vote for Speaker to see who offers the best deal. Some will support a Republican for Speaker. The public will lose out and I’ll say I told you so.

Harris County, Texas—Democrats will win all offices but for County Judge Executive. They will win back the judgeships.  

The first thing I’ll be looking for is major reforms of how we conduct the death penalty in Harris County. Hopefully, the new District Attorney will pursue a course far less bloodthirsty and barbaric from what we have seen from the seemingly inhuman men who have been elected to this office in the ten years I’ve lived in Houston.

It will be up to rank-and-file Democrats and all people of Harris County to see that the new Democrats in Harris County office really represent a change. There is more to our county than traffic and hurricanes. There are many people who need help from government.

Urban voters are used by Democrats all the time. The switch to Democrats in Harris County reflects demographic trends, high turnout for Mr. Obama, and campaign money that flowed on in from big donors when it seemed likely Democrats could win the county. It is not some grassroots rebellion.

They’ll use us if we let them. Let us remain vigilant and make life better in our county.   

For those opposed to my views this Election Day, I offer nothing but the back of my hand. For those on my side of the aisle, let’s hope that this time the wheel lands on our number.

November 2, 2008 Posted by | Campaign 2008, Cincinnati, Houston, Politics, Texas | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments

Why You Should Volunteer For Michael Skelly For Congress Or In Some Other Uphill Race

Michael Skelly is running for Congress as a Democrat from the 7th Congressional District of Texas. ( Please click the link for the Skelly campaign.)

This district includes portions of Houston and areas around Houston. It has been a Republican district in recent years.

The incumbent is the terrible John Culberson.

You should volunteer for Michael Skelly and for other candidates facing an uphill race.

(Though this race may not be uphill as it seems at first look.) 

Let me tell you why.

When I was 23, I volunteered for a man named Tyrone Yates who was running as a Democrat in the very Republican 2nd congressional district of Ohio. This was in 1990.

This Cincinnati-area district now elects the terrible Jean Schmidt.

Tyrone had, at best, a small chance of winning.

In the other Cincinnati-area district, the 1st, there was a tight and high profile race for an open seat.

That campaign had many volunteers. Most of them were forgotten by the campaigns when the race was over. 

Mr. Yates did not have many volunteers.   

I called Tyrone one day out of the blue and he told me to come to a campaign meeting.

I was soon part of the campaign core.

There were maybe 8 of us.

We went to campaign appearances and had a good time. I learned things. I made some friends.

We lost the race, but it was a great experience and fun.

In 1991, Tyrone became a member of the Cincinnati City Council.

In 1992, he gave me a job in his office. Tyrone gave me the job in part because I had been on-board with him when others had not.

While working at Cincinnati City Hall, I met my future wife. 

Also, even though we lost our race in 1990, we served the cause of democracy.

Mr. Skelly will likely have a larger campaign than we did—I hope he does—But I bet he will appreciate each and every person who offers help. The same can be said of challengers like Mr. Skelly running across the nation. 

This story from the Houston Chronicle talks about a quick fundraising start for Mr. Skelly.

Here’s a recap of why you should volunteer for Micheal Skelly for Congress in Houston, or in some other challenging race where you live—      

1. You will learn about politics— 

2. You might meet new friends

3. If you are loyal and lucky, you might end up with a job–

4. You will be serving democracy–

5. Maybe you will meet your future spouse

April 17, 2008 Posted by | Campaign 2008, Cincinnati, Houston, Politics, Relationships, Texas | , , , , , , , , , , | 9 Comments