Early Voting Trends Offer Hope For Democrats In Texas
Kronberg’s Quorum Report , which reports on Texas politics, posted today about early voting and a possible Democratic trend in Texas. The post is full of numbers that might make you sleepy and might be out of date within hours, but the upshot is that maybe U.S. Senate candidate Rick Noriega and Texas Democrats have a chance in 2008.
From the Report—
“Although two weeks is multiple lifetimes in politics… polls released today suggest the McCain campaign is collapsing. The Wall Street journal/NBC poll…this morning reported Obama with a ten point lead. A Pew Research Center poll says Obama is up by 14. These two polls contrast with the Real Clear Politics rolling average of polls that indicates a spread of 6.8%. However, if you factor in Libertarians and Greens, Obama’s lead is just shy of 10%. Combine that with this morning’s stunning Houston Chronicle endorsement of Rick Noriega over incumbent Republican John Cornyn, and the possibility of something serious looming in Texas becomes a more reasonable hypothesis. Unfortunately, since we are not considered a battleground state, there is a paucity of public statewide polling in Texas. Extrapolating is the order of the day. But consider these numbers. Both George W. Bush and Kay Bailey Hutchison won with 63% in 2004 and 2006 respectively. According to Real Clear Politics average, McCain is down by 9% at 53.7% in an average from September 29 to October 15. Obama tracked a little better than the historical Democratic base vote of 39%. No resources are being spent in Texas but considering the national trend lines and daily drumbeat of 500 point market losses, lets round it up and say McCain trails Bush and Hutchison’s number by an even 10% in public polling.It is not unreasonable to hypothesize that the ten point drop is moderate Republicans and independents that are at least up for grabs. Meanwhile, Rasmussen’s polls have not shown John Cornyn above 50% since last June. Throw the libertarian into the mix and anything can happen.”
You might think it is crazy to think that Texas is a prospect for Democrats in 2008, but consider the early Earth. It was a hellish place. It was a place inhospitable to any kind of intelligent life.
But in time things got much better.
Things can indeed get better.
And sometimes things can get better in less than a few billion years. They might get better sooner than you imagine.