Texas Liberal

All People Matter

Early Voting Trends Offer Hope For Democrats In Texas

Kronberg’s Quorum Report , which reports on Texas politics, posted today about early voting and a possible Democratic trend in Texas. The post is full of numbers that might make you sleepy and might be out of date within hours, but the upshot is that maybe U.S. Senate candidate Rick Noriega and Texas Democrats have a chance in 2008.

From the Report—

“Although two weeks is multiple lifetimes in politics… polls released today suggest the McCain campaign is collapsing.  The Wall Street journal/NBC poll…this morning reported Obama with a ten point lead.  A Pew Research Center poll says Obama is up by 14. These two polls contrast with the Real Clear Politics rolling average of polls that indicates a spread of 6.8%.  However, if you factor in Libertarians and Greens, Obama’s lead is just shy of 10%. Combine that with this morning’s stunning Houston Chronicle endorsement of Rick Noriega over incumbent Republican John Cornyn, and the possibility of something serious looming in Texas becomes a more reasonable hypothesis. Unfortunately, since we are not considered a battleground state, there is a paucity of public statewide polling in Texas.  Extrapolating is the order of the day. But consider these numbers.  Both George W. Bush and Kay Bailey Hutchison won with 63% in 2004 and 2006 respectively.   According to Real Clear Politics average, McCain is down by 9% at 53.7% in an average from September 29 to October 15. Obama tracked a little better than the historical Democratic base vote of 39%. No resources are being spent in Texas but considering the national trend lines and daily drumbeat of 500 point market losses, lets round it up and say McCain trails Bush and Hutchison’s number by an even 10% in public polling.It is not unreasonable to hypothesize that the ten point drop is moderate Republicans and independents that are at least up for grabs. Meanwhile, Rasmussen’s polls have not shown John Cornyn above 50% since last June.  Throw the libertarian into the mix and anything can happen.”

You might think it is crazy to think that Texas is a prospect for Democrats in 2008, but consider the early Earth. It was a hellish place. It was a place inhospitable to any kind of intelligent life. 

But in time things got much better.

Things can indeed get better.

And sometimes things can get better in less than a few billion years. They might get better sooner than you imagine. 

Here is the Rick Noriega for Senate web page.

Here is a geological history of the Earth.

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October 23, 2008 - Posted by | Campaign 2008, Politics, Texas | , , , , , ,

7 Comments »

  1. Elect Rick Noriega for better leadership in support of Texas in the Senate.

    http://acropolisreview.com/2008/06/2008-democratic-senate-candidate-races.html

    Comment by Jean | October 23, 2008

  2. I have my fingers crossed. Of course I support the Democrats in all the major elections, but we need to make sure that the Texas Supreme Court, Court of Criminal Appeals, and State Board of Ed aren’t dominated by Republicans for much longer. With all the people on death row being exonerated, and the “evolution issue,” we can’t afford to have the same extreme right-wing leaders that have been in place for the past several years.

    Comment by Tiffani Ellis | October 23, 2008

  3. Ms.Ellis—Our courts have been horrible. You are on target with your focus here. Thank you for the comment.

    Comment by Neil Aquino | October 24, 2008

  4. in ohio early voting means getting your vote and registrations supena by the local prosecutor. hes a republican go figure? the oath he took on the bible he fights for? what a watered down corrupt shit, deters is his name.

    Comment by bill brady | October 25, 2008

  5. Mr. Deters has sent many people to the death chamber in his time in office. You can bet many were innocent. He’s a bloodthirsty nut and a blot on Hamilton County, Ohio.

    Comment by Neil Aquino | October 25, 2008

  6. I remember when Jimmy Carter was something of a long shot, but I voted with my heart and to my surprize he won.

    This election year I am voting for whom I believe is the best prepared, the most educated, the most sincere candidate, Barak Obama. He is not just “the lesser of two evils” as I felt Kerry was. And my heart tells me he is the one who can bring about the most healing and reunifing that our country so deeply needs.

    God Speed Barak

    Comment by Mary Baker | November 3, 2008

  7. Ms. Baker—-Great comment. Please visit the blog again.

    Comment by Neil Aquino | November 4, 2008


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